What a Bush Win Will Mean for America

By Mark Tran
The Guardian U.K.

Wednesday 03 November 2004

A second term in the White House for Bush could have far reaching effects not only on the economy, but on the social fabric of the country, says Mark Tran.

As he heads for another four years in the White House - barring a shock in Ohio - George Bush will have the chance to tilt the supreme court firmly to the right and leave a lasting imprint on the US's social and political fabric.

Three of the nine supreme court justices could well step down in the next few years. Chief justice William Rehnquist, an 80-year-old Nixon appointee, who was hospitalised last week following complications arising from thyroid cancer, is surely looking at retirement. Justices John Paul Stevens, 84, and Sandra Day O'Connor, 74, have also indicated an interest in stepping down.

Unlike presidents, supreme court justices are not hobbled by term limits and can stay on for decades. The president who appoints them is therefore presented with an opportunity to mould the powerful body according to his political tastes - with the caveat that such judges can often confound expectations.

We can expect big battles in Congress as Democrats seek to block Mr Bush from packing the court with conservative judges. The president has made it clear what kind of judges he wants in the court, holding up as models two of the court's most conservative members, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.

In the coming years, the supreme court is expected to consider some of the most divisive social issues in the US: private property rights and government land seizure, gay marriage and partial-birth abortion.

The importance of the court cannot be underestimated. It was the supreme court that segregated American schools and then reversed the judgment. It was the supreme court that made the famous Roe v Wade ruling that confirmed a woman's right to an abortion. The amendment has long been a bugbear for the religious right, which may well seek to overturn the ruling once Mr Bush has made his appointments.

On the economic front, the White House has been building up problems that will have to be tackled sooner or later. In his first term, the Bush administration engineered what an International Monetary Fund economist termed as the "best recovery that money can buy".

That recovery rested on huge tax cuts and massive government - especially military - spending. The result has been enormous US budget and trade deficits that the IMF believe to be unsustainable. Unless Mr Bush starts to soak up the pool of red ink, interest rates will have to rise as a corrective measure, which could push the US into recession.

To tame the US deficit, Mr Bush may well have to make a u-turn and raise taxes - as his father, despite his "read my lips, no new taxes" pledge, did before him. Perhaps the only consolation for Kerry supporters is that Mr Bush will now have to take some unpalatable measures to correct the massive economic imbalances that have developed under his first term.

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Mark Tran reported for the Guardian from the US from 1984 to 1989.



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