Bush Sees a Chance to Win Piece of Maine

THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE
Bush Sees a Chance to Win Piece of Maine
The state's electoral votes can be shared by Kerry and the president. So the chief executive flies in to rally the Republican faithful.
By Nick Anderson
Times Staff Writer

September 24, 2004

BANGOR, Maine — President Bush dashed to this central Maine city Thursday to challenge the Democratic grip on the northeastern state where his family often vacations — or, at least, to position himself to snatch one of its four electoral votes.

Bush's trip cast a spotlight on Maine's quirky presidential election system. Unlike 48 other states, Maine does not use a winner-take-all method to allot its votes in the electoral college. Instead, it awards an electoral vote for every congressional district that a candidate carries, plus two to the statewide winner. Nebraska does the same.

With that equation in mind, Bush chose to visit a principal city in Maine's vast 2nd Congressional District, which he has the best chance of winning. At 29,904 square miles, it is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River, spanning swaths of forests and lakes and touching the Canadian border.

Bush managed to inject his Maine ties — his family has a seaside summer home in Kennebunkport — as he zipped through a 45-minute version of his standard campaign speech, promoting his tax cuts and his vision for democracy in Iraq.

"I'm honored to be back in this beautiful state," Bush told a crowd of prescreened Republican loyalists at Bangor International Airport. "I wasn't sure I'd be invited back after the last time I came. I didn't make the bed."

Polls show Maine leaning slightly toward the Democratic presidential candidate, Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry. But political analysts say it remains competitive. Its handful of electoral votes could prove important in a tight election. The state has two popular Republican senators, and its voters are famously independent.

"Maine is still a battleground state, for the most part," said Anthony J. Corrado, a professor of government at Colby College in nearby Waterville, Maine. "The Bush campaign and the Republicans hope the closeness of the race will perhaps give them an opportunity to pick off a vote in the 2nd District, even if they don't win the state."

The possibility of an electoral vote split here echoes a similar situation unfolding in Colorado.

On Nov. 2, Colorado will vote on a referendum to switch from winner-take-all to proportional distribution of its nine electoral votes. If Amendment 36 passes, it is expected to take effect immediately, barring court intervention.

That, in turn, could benefit Kerry. Even if Bush won the Republican-leaning state, Kerry could still get a significant consolation prize of as many as four electoral votes. The statewide winner would take at least five.

The Colorado referendum underscores a little-known fact about presidential elections. Although the electoral college is written into the Constitution, the winner-take-all system by which most states award their electoral votes is not. States are free to decide how to choose presidential and vice presidential electors.

Since Maine switched to its district-based system in 1972, it has never split its electoral votes. But that almost happened in 1992, when Ross Perot ran strongly here, and in 2000 as well.

The 2000 Democratic nominee, Al Gore, carried the state with 49% of the vote to Bush's 44%. But Gore prevailed only 47% to 46% in the 2nd Congressional District. If Bush had picked up a few thousand more votes in the rural north, he would have taken an elector from Gore.

Working in Bush's favor is the district's heavy rural vote and its orientation toward the timber industry, which is influential within his administration. In his speech Thursday, Bush took pains to thank loggers.

Also, the district tends to be socially conservative. Its congressman, Democrat Michael Michaud, is a freshman who favors gun-owner rights and opposes abortion rights, stances that dovetail with Bush's.

Working against the president, potentially, are economic anxieties. Many jobs in the district have been lost in recent years to global trade, particularly in the textile and shoemaking industries. Potato harvests are down, and the Air Force shut down a base near here 10 years ago.

Mindful of such economic concerns, Bush tailored part of his address to jobs. He noted that unemployment in Maine was lower than the national average and plugged his tax-cut agenda.


If you want other stories on this topic, search the Archives at latimes.com/archives.